Wednesday checkin

The USC-UH statistical comparison is faulty because the rankings are compared, not the actual statistical figures. Because the spreads between the rankings are not shown, like with assists/set, it may cause someone to think a rankings difference of 23 spots is more significant than is actually the case. Compounding this is the inclusion of yearly totals (except hitting pct.), which skews the analysis because USC has played one more set than UH. It is far more accurate to compare the per set stats (actual figures rather than ranking positions), and the hitting pct. categories. Below I have done this (in parentheses are the team ranks):

Team Hawaii USC
Sets Played 52 53
Aces/Set 1.58 (40) 1.66 (32)
Assists/Set 13.17 (27) 13.66 (4)
Blocks/Set 3.27 (1) 2.81 (17)
Digs/Set 14.06 (205) 15.89 (58)
Attacks/Set 33.90 (211) 34.06 (202)
Kills/Set 14.38 (12) 14.64 (3)
Hitting Pct. 0.292 (9) 0.304 (3)
Opp. Hit Pct 0.143 (11) 0.141 (10)

Using these figures, the two teams are just about the same in each category except that USC has 1.83 more digs/set. So on the face of it, the poster’s comment (“If the Bows can keep improving their stats, the NCAA’s own team ranking of the [334] D-1 schools will make the case for inclusion just as strongly as the NCAA’s own RPI will make the case against inclusion of Na Wahine as one of the subregional hosts”) seems quite reasonable.

But hold on. Statistics are the beginning of knowledge and understanding, not the end. Let’s peel back another layer of the onion by comparing each team’s competition. After all, if two teams have similar records and stats as above but one has stronger competition than the other, it would stand to reason that the team with the stronger competition is of superior quality, at least based on who they have each played. So let’s do this now.

UH’s opponents have a W-L record of 110-113 (.493) and USC’s opponents record is 147-91 (.618). These exclude matches against UH and USC, respectively. Now let’s look at the opponents’ AVCA and RPI rankings:

Hawaii USC
Opp AVCA/RPI Opp AVCA/RPI
UCLA 12 3 Wash 6 14
Florida 17 5 Stanf 7 7
Iowa NR 33 UCLA 12 3
Wich St. NR 64 BYU 15 19
Poly NR 68 Kntcky 20 18
Amer. NR 94 No. Car 31 39
E Wash NR 140 Creigh 34 20
OR St. NR 156 Oklah NR 54
SDSU NR 158 ID St. NR 59
UCSB NR 161 WA St. NR 60
Bakers NR 177 Pepper NR 73
Bakers NR 177 No. IA NR 76
Idaho NR 215 Mrylnd NR 80
Rivers NR 220 NewMx NR 126
Fullert NR 273 Utah St NR 202
ChicgoSt NR 304

Clearly USC has played the tougher competition, based on team reputation/eye test, records, and rankings. So while UH and USC have similar stats, USC’s tougher competition makes them the superior team. Without this context, one would think the similarity in stats (or an improvement in such stats) is sufficient justification or support for giving UH a seed (or at least as powerful an argument for seeding as the RPI). But you can credibly argue that UH’s stats would be lower if they played USC’s schedule to date. So the stats argument as originally presented is flawed IMO.

That aside, yes I do think UH is better than its RPI rank, and I do believe that they can beat any team in the nation on a neutral court (and most of the top 30 teams on a hostile court). They have the height, depth, skill and experience. And I think they are one of the best 16 teams worthy of a seed.

Maverick, are you available to do my taxes? You have an in creditable analytical mind.

@Maverick I enjoy your analysis and perspective and was wondering what you think would be the most effective approach going forward to strengthen our RPI. I’m also a bit lazy and would rather have somebody else run the numbers.

For example, would UH be better off RPI-wise with a bye or non-Div 1 opponent instead of playing a CSU Bakersfield caliber opponent?

To me, mathematically and probably many people on this blog, RPI is mostly reflective of the strength of schedule and not necessarily the quality of a team. If CSU Fullerton had been swept in all 15 matches by the top 15 teams, our RPI (and Fullerton’s) jumps up even though nothing else has changed. In my opinion, if we must host three preseason tournaments and can’t get more Pac-12 and Big Ten teams out here for those tournaments, then either UH finds a way to encourage the Big West to schedule better or we need to just forget about the RPI and being seeded. As frustrating as it is to not be seeded when I feel we should, I would rather keep all three preseason tournaments here than have the Wahine try play the RPI game on the mainland to potentially host in the post-season.

Lastly, and not that it matters much, but it looks to me like the adjustment that the NCAA makes to the RPI is primarily based on the Conference RPI. If the Conference RPI is 1, then the NCAA adjusts the RPI up a slot or three. I don’t know the exact formula, but my theory holds up when I selectively spot check it.

I will add that I don’t think I am saying anything that hasn’t already been said elsewhere, but it is my two cents.

I doubt Snuka can make team USA with no passing experience. She does make great digs, but her location is iffy, her connections with her middles is not good and she goes to Kalei Mau way too much.
I think UW is the most beatable they have been in 5 years. I think the wahine can beat them in seattle this time.

I think UH is a far better team than AZ at every position except setter and Oh1, and yet AZ could have won at UW, if they took the third set.
Sybeldon is really good but if UH serves tough and limits her they can win fairly easily. Of course if UH gets sent to a Seattle subregional yet again.

Does anyone have a list of Hawaii-raised volleyball players who are playing Div 1 ball for a team other than Hawaii (or where I may be able to easily research without going through a bunch of team rosters)? Most interested in teams from Big 10, Big 12, Pac 12, ACC, SEC. For example, Carly Kan at Missouri. If you know of one or two, that would be helpful too. Working on another analysis for this blog.

It’s really hard to tell how good we are/can be, because the BWC is so weak this year. Hawaii will get tested by the top 2-3 BW teams, but we need to keep improving and not play down to the competition.

Maverick, re: #12 Request for D1 Volleyball players. Easily done, this paper has a feature called Hawaii Grown in the sports section. In one it listed 57 Hawaii-born players.

http://www.staradvertiser.com/sportspremium/hawaiigrownreportpremium/20150916_haley_paakaula_is_diggin_the_east_coast.html?id=327835021

17. Robins-Hardy was injured at the beginning of the season. Currently she and Godfrey Willardson are battling for the starting spot. As of the last few weeks, they have been subbing in for each other where one starts and the other comes in to take over the match.

15,16,17: thx very much
19. Great idea. I’ll email him.

Tuileta is also at BYU right?

thought I’d share this link because I thought it was so funny how people felt shoji had a bias for punahou girls

http://youtu.be/gtV2EyWG9RE

6. I have an answer to your question, “For example, would UH be better off RPI-wise with a bye or non-Div 1 opponent instead of playing a CSU Bakersfield caliber opponent?”

I asked John McGinn, who developed an RPI estimator for women’s volleyball (http://ncaastats.figstats.net/volleyball-rpi.cgi), to run a scenario that assumes UH and Bakersfield do not play each other this year. The result is that UH’s RPI rises from 36 to 29 while Bakersfield’s RPI falls from 175 to 195 (note that the NCAA’s RPI has Bakersfield at 177 as of Monday while McGinn’s is updated daily).

So from an RPI perspective, UH would have been better served not to have played Bakersfield, or to play a Div II team like BYU-Hawaii or Chaminade (if earning revenue/not taking a week off are important), or to play a better Div I team. Note that matches against Div II opponents are disregarded in Div I RPI calculations.