POW honors for Manu-Olevao, UH up to 26 in RPI, stays at 8 in poll
Wahine stay at 8 in poll. Leapfrogged by Kansas (18-0) which went from 9 to 7
http://www.avca.org/divisions/division-one-women/poll-10-19-2015/
Hawaii up two spots to 26 in RPI
http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weeklyrpi/2015WVBrpi1.html
still a little mind boggling that Arkansas State (19-1) is at 13.
Teams with seven losses ahead of Wahine
20 Northwestern 12-7,
23 Creighton 15-7,
25. Illinois 12-7
RPI for Hawaii’s opponents
3. Florida
5. UCLA
42. Iowa
49. Wichita State
94. American
136 Oregon State
139. Eastern Washington
147. San Diego State
158. CSU Bakersfield
186 Idaho
Big West
57. Long Beach State
83. Cal Poly
122. UC Irvine
160 UC Davis
172. UCSB
212 CSUN
237 UC Riverside
296 CSU Fullerton
COMMENTS
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Road matches at LBSU, Cal Poly and UCI could be huge boosters in the RPI. Main thing is Hawaii just needs to keep winning, and we’re seeing how that eventually is protected by the RPI. I’d be shocked if Hawaii finished 26-1, and not within the Top 20 of the RPI.
We have to remember the committee DOES factor in national ranking, location, and how a team finished the season (among other things), when deciding the seeds. The RPI does weigh most heavily, BUT there have been Top 16 RPI teams that haven’t hosted (and vice versa). If Hawaii can get to 14, I think they are safe, but again, it’s beyond their control.
Just keep winning, and keep hoping the non-conference teams keep winning and Cal Poly, UCI and LBSU take care of business on their end and not lose to any of the other BWC teams. These three games on the road will be pivitol in keep Hawaii’s RPU up.
Stat-wise
Hawaii stays at No. 1 in block 3.50 bps
Magill up to No. 2 1.69 behind Florida’s Alhassan 1.92
Maglio at No. 28 1.36.
Taylor 4th pps at 5.49
What is the magic number to host at home? I can’t remember. 🙁
Cindy, I have to agreE with you about Arkansas St’s RPI ranking. Here is their list:
Missouri (12) L
Missouri State (44) W
Southern Ill. (61) W
Saint Louis (65) W
Appalachian St. (74) W
Florida Gulf Coast (87) W
Tulsa (96) W
Texas State (109) W
Texas-Arlington (120) W
South Alabama (134) W
South Florida (142) W
Troy (145) W
Arkansas-Little Rock (160) W
Missouri K#ansas City (168) W
Steph. F. Austin (173) W
La.-Monroe (250) W
Ga. Southern (256) W
Southeast Mo. St. (258) W
La.-Lafayette (273) W
Georgia State (279) W
This weeks fun games to watch.
Saw that coming (Haw in a ranking freeze), no surprise. Ohio State leap froged Hawaii last week. It will be difficult for this wahine team to crack the top 6. Irony is Lady Jayhawks travel to Austin on WED to face their stiffest challenge on their schedule, #2 Texas. If Kansas falls –Hawaii may move depending on other games around the circle including #10 UCLA and #9 MINN..
In the Big TEN #9 Minn travels to #3 NEB on FRI and #6 Ohio State goes North to face two Great Lake foes at East Lansing on WED and # 23 in Ann Arbor on SAT. That will be a grueling task to break even. If the Buckeyes sweep they will be on top the toughest Conference in women’s volleyball. #5 Penn State, also will make the same trek, playing #23 MICH on WED and the #31 Lady Sparts on SAT.
Watch #10 UCLA this week, the lady bruins are making a second half charge and will be in Corvallis and Eugene. The Oregon road match on FRI may be a trap door for the streaking Bruins. Oregon is ranked #25. Fun games to watch.
So, despite a bye, Hawaii is in the cat bird seat this week, awaiting results from the Nos 5, 6, 7 and #9 teams. Love it!
I guess the big conferences vote for themselves a lot. USC really looks good they didn’t even break a sweat playing Arizona. Arizona looked exhausted in game four, their coach looked like he didn’t have an answer for them. Hopefully someone knocks them off before we see them. We won’t be able to slow down Grieco or Ford. Ohio St was lucky to get by Purdue this week but either are not in the class of USC, Washington or Texas neither are we. Shoji got to practice with the bigger girls in Big West play or we won’t get out of the regionals if we face any of those three. We have the height but they need playing time our conference can give them a lot of that.
Cindy, just a curious question for you. IF Higgs ankle was still “tender” and according to you, prevented her from jump serving or blocking, why did Shoji insert her after winning the first set without her. Shoji himself stated that she needed more time and there was no push to play her. We won the first set 25-17 with a revamped lineup. Why play some one who is less than 100% by your own statement?
Jerry Glanville, former UH DC under JJ and Houston Oiler Head Coach, often said, “Id rather have a replacement at 100 %, rather than a starter at <90%". The wahine squeaked out a 25-23 second set win 25-23 (after inserting Higgins) and lost in the third set, 21-25. Confusing? You bet.
UC Santa Barbara is one of my favorite teams that I follow because their scrappy play remains me of the wahine teams of old. Gauchos finally picked up two wins in their last two outings but their super freshman Lindsey Ruddins (HS AA, #15 Senior Ace List) and their super sophomore Chanel Hoffman (HS AA Prep Volleyball) have not appeared in any matches since Hawaii. Anybody knows what is happening with the Gauchos?
From the WHO CARES DEPARTMENT
Blogger posted the Opponents’ RPI so this is redundant, but since I took the trouble of confirming my info, I might as well go ahead and post it (follow-up to yesterday’s thread):
NONCONFERENCE OPPONENTS’ RPI
*In Top 25:
3 Florida (4th place in 13-team SEC; SEC has no tournament at end of season)
5 UCLA (3rd place in Pac-12; Pac-12 has no tournament at end of season)
*26 ~ 50:
42 Iowa (In 3-way tie for last place in the 14-team Big Ten; Big Ten has no tournament at end of season)
49 Wichita St (1ST place in Missouri Valley Conf; MVC Tournament at end of season)
*51 ~ 75:
None
*76 ~ 100:
94 American (1st place in Patriot League; Patriot League Tournament at end of season)
*Over 100:
136 Oregon St (10th place in Pac-12)
139 Eastern Washington (In 3-way tie for 1st place overall in 12-team-divided-into-2-division Big Sky Conf; Big Sky Tournament at end of season)
147 San Diego St (In 3-way tie for 6th place in 11-team Mountain West Conf; MWC has no tournament at end of season)
158 CAS Bakersfield (In 2-way tie for 2nd place in 8-team WAC; 5-2 Bakersfield trails 7-0 New Mexico St; WAC has no tournament at end of season)
186 Idaho (In 2-way tied for 4th place overall in Big Sky; Big Sky Tournament at end of season)
Many schools are about 40% through their conference season, while many are 50% done and can look through the rear-view mirror. If a team hasn’t righted its ship by this point, it’s not likely it will and will have to either abandon ship or go down with it. For most teams, now is the time to gain turn the gear into MO and peak just in time for SHOWTIME. Go Bows!
Question for anyone:
Does the RPI ranking determine if the team above can beat them? For example, the number 1 team will probably beat all the teams, number 10 will probably lose to the top 9, but beat everyone else, etc. Or is it just a mathematical formula that doesn’t really mean anything?
congrats to Manu-Olevao, Big West’s POW.
from the Big West:
Senior Tai Manu-Olevao (Hilo, Hawai‘i/Punahou School) led Hawai‘i offensively in a pair of wins to earn Big West Women’s Volleyball Player of the Week accolades.
The 6-foot outside hitter totaled 27 kills in two matches as UH swept UC Davis and toppled UC Irvine in four sets. The Rainbow Wahine improved to 18-1 overall, 8-0 in the Big West, and have now won 13 straight matches.
In the UC Davis match, Manu-Olevao was the lone UH player in double-digit kills as she finished with 12. She hit at a .375 clip with just three errors in 24 swings. Manu-Olevao added five digs and two assists.
Manu-Olevao recorded a season-high 19.5 points with a team-high 15 kills and a career-high seven blocks in the victory over the Anteaters. Her two solo blocks also represented a career-high. With 11 digs, Manu-Olevao secured her second double-double of the season.
For the week, she averaged 3.86 kills, 2.29 digs and 1.00 blocks per set.
UCSB’s Petrachi won both the Defensive Player and Freshman of the Week. Kahakai was nominated for defensive player and Granato for freshman honors.
@AdmrVT from previous thread. Not clear to what you are responding. I was making a comment about current opponents’ SOS and the idea of NCAA errors/malfeasance. Regarding the RPI, nothing is known two years in advance, although not all scheduling is completed that far out anyway.
10. RPI is not predictive as you’ve questioned–otherwise, hard to explain how UH beat Florida. It is just a reflection of won-loss records of a team, its opponents, and its opponents’ opponents. Not a reflection of team quality at all.
7. sorry but never said it prevented her from blocking or jump serving, the latter which she did in the beginning but then changed to a standing serve. which, IMO, was because she didn’t want to put added pressure on it. Also, IMHO, she was less than 100 percent but I’m not the trainer nor am I Higgins.
Where I got the blocking reference was from watching the replay on Sunday, McLachlin said at one point he could hear Shoji asking her if she could jump. She said yes.
He said they felt Koelsch’s location was off so he used Higgins,
Koelsch played all four sets so I wouldn’t put the Set 3 loss on Higgins. Think it was a question of UCI readjusting their block, they had 8 in Set 3, and Hawaii’s serving not being as one as it was earlier. They had 2 aces and 5 SEs in Set 3, had 4 aces and 5 SEs in the other 3 sets combined.
At one point in Set 4, both setters were on the floor. with it being Higgins and Castillo as the sub pattern.
Let’s talk about Set 2. Koelsch started.
Higgins came into Set 2 when Hawaii was down 0-4.
Koelsch came back in when UH was trailing 4-6, into the front row and with Bubica out.
Higgins came back in when UH was trailing, 11-12 and stayed in until.Koelsch came back in with UH leading 24-22.
Granato’s service error made it 24-23. Higgins back in, set Maglio for the game-ender.
Super! What a wonderful recognition to a player who has gone through so much. I cannot honestly think of a more deserving player in the history of the program who has fought through so much. And yeah, don’t say it, as the team will get their recognition in due course – this time around, it is you and only you that gets recognized!
here’s a novel what if, what if in an emergency situation, they put Koelsch at one of the outside hitter position? She looks like she can hit pretty well, and with her height, we already know she’s a pretty good blocker, and we also know she can pass. I know, I know, Higgins is hurt, so they need her at setter, but just being hypothetical.
Some posters are still having a difficult time with the concept that RPI is not a reflection of team quality (or maybe its fun to vent). For example, Arkansas St. is not surprising given the NCAA’s data and RPI formula. Below are the Adj. RPI rank, team name, team won-loss record, team SOS, and team’s opponents’ SOS rank (source: https://rpiarchive.ncaa.org/default.aspx) for a selection of teams:
8 Kansas, 18-0, 67, 40
10 Wash, 17-1, 71, 11
13 Ark St., 19-1, 65, 101
14 BYU, 17-2, 73, 26
19 W. KY, 21-2, 88, 64
These teams all have stellar W-L records (yes, one loss is a big deal–compare KS and WA) and similar SOS ranks. KS undefeated record offsets a 40th ranked OppSOS. WA’s 11th OppSOS offsets its lone loss. AK St. is ranked so high largely because it is 19-1, offsetting the 101st OppSOS. W. KY has a high RPI rank despite middling SOS ranks because it has a 21-2 record.
Now let’s look at the top six teams:
1 USC, 20-0, 20, 3
2 Nebr, 16-2, 9, 1
3 Fla, 13-4, 1, 33
4 OSU, 18-2, 10, 13
5 UCLA, 15-3, 2, 18
6 Texas, 16-1, 17, 16
All six have top 20 SOS/OppSOS ranks (except FL’s OppSOS–more on that in a second). Having a to SOS rank (50% of RPI) offsets lesser W-L records and OppSOS ranks. See FL and UCLA, who have 4 and 3 losses respectively and the two lowest OppSOS ranks of the six teams, but rank 1 and 2 in SOS. The other four teams have no more than two losses each.
In fact, having high SOS/OppSOS ranks can give a team with several losses a good RPI rank, as shown below:
11 Kentucky, 13-6, 7, 7
15 Wisconsin, 12-6, 11, 4
20 Northwestern, 12-7, 6, 24
21 Iowa St., 11-6, 8, 14
22 Stanford, 11-5, 26, 2
23 Creighton, 15-7, 14, 23
25 Illinois, 12-7, 13, 6
Now let’s look at UH: 26 Hawaii 18-1, 154, 25. The OppSOS of 154 more than offsets a great W-L record and very good OppSOS rank. And to reiterate what many posters have said previously, UH’s non-conference SOS rank is 78th. Pre-season scheduling did not pan out for Na Wahine.
17. Correction: UH’s SOS is ranked 154, not its OppSOS as I mistakenly wrote.
ruffles, I think they look at what you suggest next year. Iosola (sp)will be in the mix and she is very good.
I still find it incredulous that Dave would play Nikki after she suffered a knee to the side of her head and had to be helped off the court during the match against UCD. Any hit to the head should not be a players decision to re-enter just because they say they’re okay. As for Higgins, Dave also said at the post game interview with Robb that she would not play in the UCI match….but, he still inserted her even though she was not at 100 per cent. I’ve never questioned Dave’s judgment before but in these two decisions, I feel he erred.
For those who believe/assume the NCAA input process is error prone or not up to snuff, an independent RPI calculator with bonus estimates (see: http://ncaastats.figstats.net/volleyball-rpi.cgi and click on the “Unmodified RPI with Experimental Bonuses” tab) gives a ranking that matches the NCAA’s RPI ranking exactly for the top 60 teams (I stopped checking at 60). This calculation is modeled and populated by an independent person not involved with the NCAA volleyball stat team.
20. I’d like to know what protocols were in place to determine that she was ok to go back in (Shoji probably relied on the advice of training staff/whoever checked Nikki out before reinserting her). We know from the NFL that even if a player has been concussed, many will say/do anything to get back on the field (as crazy as that sounds), so greater care is taken now to mitigate that. Not sure what happened during the match, but would like to know specifics beyond the general “Nikki convinced the [trainer] she was ok to go back in” statements I’ve seen. Imagine what would have resulted if she suffered an injury/got hit in the head again after reinsertion.
#14, thank you for your kind and prompt response.
Still does not answer my question and it only reinforces what I thought. Coach was confused. Higgs says she is OK but can not jump to serve or block. Most fans sawshe could not jump well but Shoji does not? Kendra (standing serve) served nearly flawless with 1 error and 1 ace in 15 attempts for a second best .933 average out of 8 wahine servers. Higgs (standing serve) serves 8Xs, 1 ace and 3 errors and the lowest serving percent @ .655. She bombed there. Scratch that reason for inserting her.
Being down 0-4 in the third set, still ahead 2-0, doesnt sound alarming unless Shoji wanted to play Higgs or he panicked. Shoji is too experienced to lose it. Rare. He wanted to play Higgins with a two set lead and allow Higgins to bring the team back. An opportunity to affirm her as starter. He bailed on Koelsch. The one who gave us 2 victories in 5 sets over nationally ranked teams.
Nikki passed the preliminary protocol of assessment by the trainers. Higgins was cleared to play the weekend. I find it incredulous that anyone would think Coach Shoji would knowingly endanger a players health or well being.
Taylor is 4th in the nation in pps….
Congratulations to TMO! She really earned her POW particularly after all the injuries to the starters; she has proven why Dave sticks with her through thick and thin. GO BOWS!
24. What exactly is involved with the “preliminary protocol of assessment”? Just curious.
Watched the replay vs Irvine, and the girls said that Tai had a good singing voice, wouldn’t it be a great idea if she sang the anthem during senior night?
haka, I hope your stand alone comment is not addressed to me by inference? If it is you need to follow my thread bc your statement is deep south of the north pole and has no nexus to my subject matter. Please disregard if you were speaking of another thread.
NOT TO MENTION NCAA’S SEVERE FEAR & HATRED OF HAWAII.
For those who don’t like how OC Sports is no longer showing the starting lineup announcement (in favor of pre-game comments by McLachlin and Leahey) just before each match begins, I suggest writing to OC to request they restore it. You can contact them here: http://ocsports.tv/contact
I already put in my request, but they will ignore if no one else contacts them.
Whoever does the RPI should bury it and change it to R.I.P. !
First off, congrats to Tai!!! She really elevated her game this year, and I always wondered what type of player she could’ve been if she had that redshirt year.
Hi Cindy,
do you by chance know when we will hear about Annie’s injury? I really hope it’s not to serious! In the event she’s out (praying not) who would be listed as the 3rd MH on the depth chart? i know we have that other MH (burns?) but last I knew they was planning on RS here.
Dont get me wrong, I love Kendra’s energy and blocking, but really hope her setting location gets better and I know it will!!! She’s brings so much fire to the court!!!
glad the girls have a Bye week! Couldn’t come at a better team!!!
#20 Anteaters’ Assistant Coach Kaleo Baxter’s had previous been the volunteer coach at UH for 4 years with responsibilities that included training the passers and working with the defense as well as scouting opposing teams. Kaleo had our tendencies down cold as evidenced by holding UH hitting to .175% and blocking us 17 times. To me, Shoji was trying to throw off Kaleo by switching sitters through out the match. If he didn’t do something, I think we would have lost just like at the UCLA match when Mike Sealy had our tendencies down cold also.
I agree about keeping Nikki out. Shoji should not have allow Nikki to come back in. I didn’t see if he confer with the trainer or just let the trainer make the decision. Glad that they recognize the danger by next match and sat Nikki out.
To early to worry about post season. For those with time to waste investigating the NCAA selection gurus choice of
teams good for them but its about time this blog gets on to another subject. Like why Shoji didn’t have a player ready to take Taylors place in case of an injury. He has a sub for all the other positions but the right side. I think it was inexcusable that he didn”t have someone ready that could hit the D set. Maybe not as good as Taylor but at least someone who could be a threat to take the burden off the left side. Mitchem had just one day practice there and both setters didn’t seem to have confidence in setting her with the D set
23… hmmm… maybe it’s a future problem he’s dealing with now.. Trying to clarify who plays next year with Iosea coming in…. Kendra starting now presents an interesting problem don’t you think? Speculation but maybe not too far fetched. LoL.
#23 I don’t see any confusion at all. In the last pre-game interview aired on OC Sports for Irvine match, my best recollection was that Shoji said Higgins could play – but in the interview the week prior to that (2 weeks ago), he said she wasn’t quite ready but there was no need to rush her. It seems straight forward. Your timeline may be off – I will revisit the videos and take a look.
Any word on when we’ll know the status of the injuries to Greeley and Mitchem?
28. Great idea. Cindy, maybe you can coax TMO into doing it.
31. Maverick, I put my 2 cents worth in as well. We need more people to do so. Thanks for the link and all the great analyticals.
#34 Where have you been?? It is widely reported that Huff trained for over a year as Nikki’s backup but she left to play BB fulltime. Then, it was reported that Castillo and Mitchem were taking reps at OP in addition to training for their designated backup positions. As to hitting D sets, OC Sport Commentator Chris McLachlin commented several times that there are very few players in the entire country that can even hit the D-set regularly. Be real! Nikki is a one of kind. If you were watching the Irvine match, you may have seen a weak D-set, kinda, by Mitchem.
#34 love the conversation. Agree with you partially relating to prepping a replacement. Shoji waited too long, certainly should have begun when HUFF split.
He started seriously w Mitchem when Kalei went down. Mitchem was hurt early in the match and that may have had something to do with her power swing. I have seen Mitchem start out slow but once she is comfortable in her space she starts to bang and can be a huge asset w her block and digs if she laps the rotation. She has a wicked serve too. Castillo’s non play is still a mystery immersed in controversy.
As for the RPI comment volume, Maverick does an excellent job of educating fans and keeping everyone in the loop. Much appreciated. It is an integral part of blog chatter…
Just a stats note, correction to 2.Cindy and backing 25.Brandon. Nikki is 4th in the nation, 5.49 points per set.
#35 Maybe it is true – but I have seen these speculations that you are circulating before – Club Ball/HS.
KB, regarding Higgins. No one said she couldn’t jump, jump serve or block.
MY guess was that she didn’t jump serve so as to take pressure off the ankle.
McLachlin said he heard Shoji ask Higgins if she could jump. I don’t remember at one point of the match that was but likely when she was playing front row. They were doing a lot of double subs during the match with the setter so it makes sense if Higgins was asked if she could jump should be left in the front row. Her answer was yes.
33. Baxter was last with the Wahine in 2014 so only players he would have worked with at the collegiate level — outside of Ponce — were Manu-Olevao, Taylor who didn’t play, and Higgins, who was a reserve setter in 2014. He knew Mitchem’s tendencies from IVC but she was playing out of position Saturday. Shoji wasn’t trying to throw him off by switching setters, he was trying to win a match.
Trainer cleared Taylor to go back in to the match. When I wrote that she convinced the trainer that she fine, that was a quote from Shoji, and that was after she answered the questions that players are asked after taking a hit to the head. It wasn’t Taylor talking herself back onto the court, at least that’s what I understand, it was Taylor passing the assessments that are done and was cleared to re-enter
36. Pretty sure your timeline is correct. It was Greeley that Shoji said wouldn’t be available for Saturday. He said the Higgins could have played Friday but they decided to rest her.
37. Team is off today. Have asked for updates but likely won’t get them until Tuesday.
40. Mitchem can hit the D. but they didn’t use that Saturday. And her hand injury, as someone suggested, may have played a part.
As for Manu-Olevao’s singing, she does have a beautiful voice but doubt if anyone could convince her to perform at the arena. She’s very private
#36. My use of the word”confusion” does not relate to injury status…it relates to player bias. Guess you did not read my posts clearly and catch the euphemistic down play of words. Paraphrasing a samurai code, “do not draw your sword unless you intend to draw blood”. I was being subtle. Hope you can too.
If the RPI walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it’s a duck. Stop arguing and trying to make it look like a red herring. Winning is at the top of the list in the NCAA’s business plan. You can’t please everyone all of the time but at least they have at large berths. You can justify putting teams high on the RPI at the beginning of the season based on what they did in the tournament last year. You can bolster and round out your arguments and tough job of selecting regionals and who goes there by using geography. ESPN probably plans more and more coverage of women’s volleyball, and money talks. And when you know you everyone is right about an issue that goes against what you do, you concentrate on making an argument about everything else but the issue. So win, get better every week, and don’t give the NCAA reasons why you should be ranked outside of the top 16.
I would guess the little mind boggling stuff happens because the RPI is based on and from the perspective of the so called top teams in the country. So logically, inequity results in the “formula” when applied strictly mathematically. Thus, the head scratching. Btw, top teams equals teams that win or finish high in their brackets, everyone else seems to be collateral damage. But don’t know if you can really fault the NCAA if this is in fact what weighs into the subjective part of their selections for seeding. Imho, the resulting inequity in the formula is a problem the NCAA has to fix.
31. Maverick … I emailed that the other day. I also emailed Inouchi at UH, if that helps any. Who is the Wahine VB media relations director ? Whose bright idea at OC was it after all these years to not show the player introductions, but instead show Kanoa and Chris talking. They are not as good looking as the Wahine.
Does OC Sports read its email ?
inouchi@hawaii.edu
40,49. Thx for sending in your comment/complaint. Hope more follow suit so we can see the intros again.
Wahine not only team getting jobbed by RPI. Not an original observation but sure seems East/Midwest/South RPIs (Big 12, Big 10, SEC etc) noticeably generous compared to West, i.e., Pac-12, considering latter’s quality, # of Final 4 + championship appearances.
West coast/Hawaii VB journos should join forces to sniff around for possible legs to story exposing structural flaws (e.g., latent or blatant subjectivity) in RPI ‘formula’ which could be manipulated for regional advantage(s).
RPI is hard to figure sometimes, last year UC Davis men’s basketball team ended up RPI rank 75 but didn’t seem to play anyone that highly rated, SOS 282. However, their record was 23-6.
UH ended up RPI rank 152 with a more difficult schedule, SOS 166, but 20-13 (against Div I teams).
49. Actually I got a response the last time I complained a few years ago when the site was charging for streaming. Streaming was clogged and unwatchable. They responded via email the next day and processed a refund, no questions asked.
53. No response from OC on this, yet. I did get a response from Derek Inouchi who said thanks for the suggestion and he would forward it to OC Sports.
Was it before they used to show the intros right after the National Anthem and Hawaii Ponoi ? Then they would break away for awhile and come right back with the start of the match. The latest is OC Sports breaks away for awhile after Hawaii Ponoi, then comes back with the camera on Kanoa and Chris during the introductions instead of the Wahine.
54. Yes, that is correct.
52. Yes, hard to understand sometimes. The only data missing in your analysis is the OppSOS (a team’s opponent’s SOS, aka opponents’ opponents’ w-l record), which accounts for 25% of the RPI score. That may better shed light on the disparity you identified.
#46 Actually, I knew exactly what you meant. Screaming bias is so old!
That’s not what I said. But your annotation is noted.
51. I’ve commented on this before but it may be helpful to repeat here. Most of what you observe relates to a conference’s non-conference win-loss record. Each conference has a cumulative w-l pct. of .500 when considering conference matches only. So the only way for conferences to distinguish themselves from an RPI perspective is to perform well in non-conference matches. Below is a list of the top 6 conferences by non-conf. w-l record, the Big West, and the worst, the Southwestern Conference (just for laughs):
Conf W-L Pct. Rank
Big Ten 124-35 0.780 1
Pac-12 97-31 0.758 2
WCC 89-29 0.754 3
Big 12 81-30 0.730 4
SEC 112-49 0.696 5
ACC 110-58 0.655 6
BW 49-60 0.450 19
SoWest 4-121 0.032 32
In the top 25 RPI rankings, Big 10 has 8 teams, Pac12 (5), WCC (1), Big12 (3), SEC (3), ACC (1), BW (0), Other (4). Clearly there is a very good correlation between RPI rankings and non-conf winning pct. WCC is the oddball, but that is probably due to playing a majority of cupcakes; however, note that San Diego is ranked 28, Loyola Mary (31), Santa Clara (45), Pacific (52)–still very good overall.
Remember that those non-conference records factor into a team’s SOS (at least once or twice depending on the conference schedule), and into a team’s OppSOS as conference play proceeds. A nice compounding effect that clearly benefits the better teams in conferences with high non-conf. winning pct.
Let’s take the SEC as an example. The respective non-conference records are: Tennessee 14-1, Ole Miss 14-1, Missouri 12-1, Florida 8-1, Arkansas 10-2, Miss St. 10-3, Auburn 8-4, Texas AM 7-4, KY 7-5, So Carolina 7-5, Bama 6-8, GA 5-7, and LSU 4-7.
So when Florida plays Tenn/Ole Miss/MO, those stellar non-conf. records are factored into its SOS, and when Tenn plays Ole Miss/MO, the three teams’ stellar records are factored into Florida’s OppSOS. That’s the compounding effect.
The rub (and blatant RPI weakness) is that many of these great non-conf. records are against lesser competition. Take my favorite whipping boy, Tennessee. This is the list of high powered non-conference foes that the 85th RPI-ranked Volunteers have played and beaten (exception is NC State, which put a loss on Tennessee), and each team’s current RPI rank:
Towson (89), College of Charleston (108), NC State (131), UNC Greensboro (149), Jacksonville (153), North Florida (157), Wofford (216), Campbell (227), Eastern KY (239), Coppin State (249), Evansville (266), Tennessee Tech (299), St. Francis PA (316), Hampton (319), and Delaware State (320).
So TN has limited benefit from such a schedule despite going 14-1, but all the other SEC teams will see a rise in RPI score (SOS component) when they play Tennessee. Perhaps the other teams in the BW can take a page out of WCC’s playbook and schedule lesser teams to boost conference RPI. That would certainly help UH.
Congrats to Tai. Well deserved.
Ho’omaika’i ‘ana, TMO! And a giant mahalo for that match point dig!
cindy regarding yesterdays thread at its closing:
higgins changing up her serve to keep pressure off her ankle is an assumption so thats not a fact. her first serve off the bench was a jump serve and an immediate ace. im saying all jump/spin servers, someone, you, or whoever should give idea to the players/shoji to spin serve at will but if accuracy or energy/health conversation is needed use standing (preferably deep serve). tai figured that serve out (but unfortunately including because of shoji, abandoned her jump serve). you know switch it up to be unpredictable. if all else fails, then stand deep float, all the way back, hit as hard you regularly can straight ahead. it avoids net, and the range offsets it from going long.
as for the the gender equity thing, i cut football a break (thats why i didnt mention it) due to their different conference, albeit their teams lack of performance. but the drama from the getgo mentioned was about mens basketball only and shoji was a pushover (even to a basketball team in disarray!)
oh well i guess that what title ix or any (current) gender equity thing is, a pushover. (possibly) too much glamour, but (definitely) not worth its salt.
15. concur! the victor of shar manuolevao!
20. shoji was just too ‘jumpy.’ 😀
23. ^see answer above^ yeah i hate to say dave partial to punahou. kendra was fine and he bailed on her.
26. yes! congratulations to shar tai manuolevao for her leadership! hope that is a big slap in the face to those who doubt her (and wants em hartong back!/wants someone else to smash through the block. did i mention shoji partial to punahou? to the misery of the ‘fans.’)
54. CONCUR, ocsports needs to be collared.
60 and 61. TMO was fantastic!
a couple last things, one of lesser importance and one of great importance.
RPI? more like TLDR. 😀
kidding aside, forget hosting for the ‘fans’. wahine needs to go on an all out siege. ‘fans’ complaining that nov 1 is last home game? well thats shojis fault being too soft on scheduling vs a weak mens (not womens) basketball. hope that lessson is learned.
finally since its 2 weeks before the siege, i say this now and with great/grave importance:
no more piss poor planning scheduling wahine for ‘RED EYE!’ somebody including you cindy, let shoji not let that happen again! this time the siege is not only the beach and csun but also davis and irvine (who may endanger the ‘spook’ this time.)
If the team made it to the final 8 or even the final 16 last year, we probably wouldn’t be having this discussion. If you were on the selection committee, the last thing you would want to hear is a team complaining about their starting RPI when they get knocked out in the second round, albeit against Washington. Washington won, lost in the third round, and I believe their starting RPI wasn’t too bad. Look at Florida’s RPI, despite losing games this year. I think the message the NCAA is sending is pretty clear.
59. Thanks for checking on the impact of CSU Bakersfield on RPI. I understand it can be difficult to predict how a team will perform two years in advance when schedules are made.
I’m with Cindy though, Arkansas State is my favorite darling of the RPI.
I am a bit surprised that our RPI continues to improve, though we did take a hit this week in the adjustment. I would have thought we would have been in our downward march this point in the season.
Do you think your advice to get other conference teams to help UH RPI is better and/or more feasible then encouraging them to schedule tougher? The thinking being losing against a good team is better for us than them losing to a mediocre team. I think for a lot of the mediocre teams, it’s probably easier to predict which teams will be substantially betterr than scheduling teams they can probably beat.
My understanding is the conventional wisdom in basketball RPI gaming is to try and schedule the number one team in the non-Power 5 conferences and to avoid difficult non-conference games. A hypothetical that could relate to our situation is had we lost to Florida compared to getting a win against WKU.
All this being said, I, like most people, only care about the RPI because it dictates who gets seeded. I would rather watch the Wahine play against the best teams they can schedule at home then play against cupcakes or go on the road to maybe boost their RPI. I also enjoy discussing it because it’s something that can be verified objectively rather than say discussing if TMO should be allowed one more bad pass to see if she can work herself out of a funk.
Also, I agree that if Nikki really did suffer a concussion, the protocol for determining in real time if she had a concussion is obviously insufficient. I understand the right to privacy, but I think sharing that information would do more good than harm, though the NFL may disagree.
from the WHO LIKES RPI DEPARTMENT
so what would hawaiis rpi be if they had beaten ucla?
Re: Nikki’s concussion. Someone really screwed up that night. Whether it’s the medical staff or the coaches fault, it’s clear that proper procedures were not followed. When an athlete gets hit in the head and is so disabled that they’re on their back for as long as she was, then it’s almost certain that some head trauma occurred. You can’t leave it up to the player to say they feel fine. Symptoms often don’t show up until hours later, and adrenaline kicks in, as well. If the collision was bad enough to keep her out of the next night’s game, then certainly she was in even more danger playing immediately after the initial strike. Just imagine if she had banged her head again that night and suffered permanent damage. I hope they review their safety protocols for all sports at UH.
#68
apparently you don’t know how to read. cindy already cleared it up that it wasn’t the player nor coaches decision. nikki answered a bunch of questions which cindy said they would ask anyone in similar situation and apparently she passed which is why they put her back into the game… eventually.
I swear people on this blog are the biggest critics of a game they feel they know more about then anyone else, including the coaching staff and someone who’s covered wahine volleyball for many many years.
we’re spectators… get off their backs.
I don’t think you’d want anyone telling you how to do a job you’ve done for 35+ years. so please don’t feel as though you have the authority to do just that.
66. You’re welcome. Note that not all teams are scheduled two years in advance (not even clear to me that most are). Take Bakersfield. Hard to believe Shoji decided to schedule a two-game series with them two years ago rather than have them in one of the tournaments (and priority is to fill the tournaments). He mentioned he thought Bakersfield would be a good opponent because they won the WAC last year. Logical to assume they were scheduled no earlier than last December after the WAC tournament.
RPI continues to improve because UH is playing teams in the BW which have better records than Fullerton and Riverside (combined 6-32 and two of the three worst in the conference). Combined with winning those matches, UH’s RPI score has improved relative to those of other teams with similar RPIs. UH’s RPI took a big hit when they played those two teams and will do so again in two weeks when the second half of conference season begins and they play those same two cellar dwellers. But then will rise again as they play the other BW teams. At season’s end, I think UH’s RPI will end up somewhere in mid/high 20s assuming no additional losses.
Regarding your question, I believe that scheduling tougher (which implies even more losses–remember the BW has a 2015 non-conf. winning pct. of .450, 19th out of 32 conferences) will have a detrimental effect to UH’s RPI. Other BW teams’ records account for the 50% of UH’s RPI score, and I believe would outweigh an increase in UH’s OppSOS (25% of RPI) due to the tougher scheduling. Winning is paramount. Refer back to what WCC has done–easier non-conf. scheduling yielded the third best conf. winning pct. per post #59 above. That would be to UH’s benefit. Of course, those BW probably wouldn’t follow such advice.
Simple rule of thumb for RPI maximizing, given an established schedule, is (1) for UH to win as many matches as possible, (2) for UH’s non-conf. opponents to win as many matches as possible, and (3) for UH’s BW opponents to win as many non-conf matches as possible (assuming for 2 and 3 that they don’t beat UH).
67. I estimated the adjustment to UH’s RPI assuming the team was 19-0 vs. 18-1. The result is an RPI rank of 18th (raw score increased from .6368 to .6500), up from its current 26. SOS wouldn’t change but I have no easy way of re-calculating OppSOS–so just an estimate. As I said above, one win makes a big difference.
Note that the movement (8 ranking positions) is not a universal figure because RPI score spreads vary depending on where you are in the RPI rankings. For example, if USC’s RPI score went down by the same amount (.0132), it would be ranked #2 rather than #1. If California’s RPI score went up by same amount, it would be ranked 131st (19 spots higher than its current ranking of 150).
Magill (MB) 6’1″ sub, Maglio 6’3″
Taylor (RS) 6’3 sub, Annie Mitchem 6’3″
Castillo (LS) 6’2″ sub, Olevao 6’0″
Greeley (DS) 6’2″ sub, Granato 5’11”
Koelsch (S) 6’1″ sub, Higgins(backrow) 5’8″
Kahakai (Libero) 5″8″ sub Anderson or Guianasso
I would love to see this exact play as a group against Riverside and Fullerton. The athletes on the left side possess height, athleticism, and skills for the big teams we will face postseason time. The subs on the right can become interchangeable if the group cannot get the job done or fine the right mix for that particular time of the game.. The only bad thing is it forces our captains from starting. To me, we all need to do whatever it takes for the betterment of this team going far.. There is no letter “I” in the word “TEAM!” Everything could work out if they all had one purpose!
71. I guess I keep focusing on Arkansas State. The Sun Belt conference has a worse conference RPI than the BW and the Red Wolves are also a one loss team but they have a much higher RPI.
I would also say teams like Creighton or San Diego which have much worse non-conference records, are rated higher than I would have expected. I understand both teams benefit from their better conferences, but I was assuming the OppSOS was more of a factor in making a difference. I might be motivated enough to see how much variation there is in OppSOS and what correlations there are with RPI.
One other idea that would take a while to check out is how useful it would be to schedule the same cupcake teams as the top RPI schools. I’d be curious how much commonality there is in preseason teams playing against top rated programs.
Appreciate all the conversations taking place and to Maverick who is very knowledgeable about the RPI which, as I admitted on BC’s show this morning that I still don’t get, but more about the fairness.
thanks Po’okela as always. Perhaps I don’t always get the sarcasm and subtleties. I read through comments quickly and that is often reflected in my responses.
anyway, got to run off to campus. Will find out more regarding the injuries then. As of Tuesday morning 8 a.m. there were no updates other than Mitchem did not go to the hospital after Saturday but sh did see a doctor.
73. one thing particular that you won’t see is the libero sub for DS. does not make sense. As most teams do, UH liberos out their middles, meaning Kahakai serves for one of the middles. and usually has a DS serve for the other.
You also don’t sub the 2 middles you mention. They both start. The difference being, as mentioned above, one of them is subbed out for the libero to start the match.
If Taylor is cleared, Mitchem will not be her sub. It will be Castillo. Mitchem will sub in the middle which is her natural position.
I know you want to see but but Castillo starting over Manu-Olevao is not going to happen.
New thread up
http://hawaiiwarriorworld.com/?p=33857