Hawaii opens at 17 in RPI, up to 21 in poll
Shoji and I were talking about it this morning, I said 17 and … I need to go to Vegas. also thought that between looking at RKPI and Pablo this was where they’d end up
UH at 17.
http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weeklyrpi/2014WVBrpi1.html
1. Stanford. 2. FSU. 3. Texas.
5. Oregon. 15. UCLA. ASU 37.
in the poll
1 and 2 stay the same Stanford and Texas. Penn State drops to 5 from 3.
as for teams that beat Hawaii
Oregon stays at 11
UCLA up 3 spots to 17
ASU down a spot to 18
CSUN no long receiving votes but Long Beach State with 5
http://www.avca.org/divisions/division-one-women/poll-10-6-14di/
COMMENTS
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I was interested in seeing how Paula Weishoff ranked Hawaii this week, but it looks like she didn’t vote.
Great for the bows… CSUN 20 and LBSU 38 in RPI… Wahine ranked 6th in Aces per set…Nice…
For Big West teams, besides Hawaii at 17, CSUN is at an impressive 20, while Long Beach State is at 38. All others are in the hundreds or below.
Well as Shoji has said, you can’t do anything about what you can’t control. Which is the RPI of the conference teams. All UH can do is keep winning, hope the other teams that beat them keep winning.
the RPI is so flawed, as evidenced by USC 8-6 at 13. based on quality losses? They drop to 20 in the poll
5. RPI is flawed in the sense that it doesn’t measure how well someone won or lost a match (how close a match was, how many sets were played, etc.). It is a simple formula that could be improved–personally, I think it should be tossed given its inherent biases. Note that the person from Ohio State who replicates the RPIs using the published formula put USC at 15 (his calculation is fairly close to what the NCAA just put out–minor differences may be due to a calculation error or the possibility that the published formula is modified in some way when the NCAA performs its calculations).
To shed some light on why USC rates so high despite its record of 8-6, it holds the #1 strength of schedule calculation in the RPI, per the OSU replicated calculation. This is the closest you can come to saying “quality losses”–losing to high RPI competition. Other views of quality losses, usually reflected in the human polls and NCAA tournament seedings, are irrelevant for RPI.
The real message is that we should really not concen ourselves with RPI this year–Hawaii’s RPI historically has fallen after conference season begins (it rated #3 to start last year before finishing at 20), given the lower RPIs of its Big West opponents. Without a quality win (i.e., a win over a power conference foe) and three losses, any chance for a seed this year is low (in my opinion, zero).
maverick — as i understand it, the NCAA’s RPI has a slight modification to the standard RPI formula. a bonus is given for wins against teams in the top 25. how much of a bonus is a mystery. the RKPI on RichKern and also the Ohio guy on his “Unofficial RPI” listing have both tried to figure out what that bonus is. they’ve come close, but haven’t gotten it exact … yet.
Cubi–I’ve heard that too. I think we would all be better served if the NCAA was transparent about the RPI calculation.
Cindy — I would add that it’s not just the teams that beat hawaii that you hope keep winning … the hope is that all the teams on hawaii’s non-conference schedule keep winning.
in fact, hawaii can probably hope to get more wins out of teams like Ohio (4-0 in their conference) and Northern Arizona (3-1 in the Big Sky) … because teams like Oregon, UCLA and Arizona St will suffer more than a few losses in the Pac-12. That conference is just too strong and deep, and those 3 teams are, at best, middle of the pack teams. Oregon may contend for an upper tier finish. But last year, the middle of the pack Pac-12 teams finished with about 10-10 conference records. So even a solid middle Pac-12 team will suffer some losses. Arizona St already suffered an unexpected loss to Utah (a team that on paper, Arizona St should have beat).
one of the posters on VT has been posting his projections for the RPI at the end of the season. and hawaii could finish with an RPI of around 17, even if they suffer a loss or two in the big west. so it’s possible they could be on the bubble for a seed.
hawaii is 0-2 against the RPI top 25 at the moment, but if csun’s RPI stays in the top 25, that will give hawaii 2 more opportunities to bump up that record. a respectable RPI and a respectable 2-2 record against the top 25 would put hawaii squarely on the bubble for a seed (at least on paper). still, a lot could happen between now and then. just gotta play and win, and hope the teams hawaii played in the preseason gobble up as many wins as they can too.
hawaii’s matches against lbsu, and especially csun (both on the road) this weekend will have big west title and RPI/seeding implications. imo.
11. Wishful thinking in my view. Who knows what assumptions went into the RPI projections (you’d need a fairly robust computer program and then have to make projections for a lot of teams W-L records). I am fairly comfortable that UH won’t be seeded.
maverick — the VT projections for end of the year RPI used Pablo to guess what the teams’ records would be at the end of the season. so fairly reliable. but yes, an assumption nevertheless.
i too think hawaii will be unseeded, but it’s interesting to think that (on paper at least) they’ve still got a shot at it. this year’s team — more than any other team — might be better suited in the unseeded under-dog role.
factoring home court advantage …
Pablo has Long Beach St (6,692 pts) the slight favorite over Hawaii (6,645 pts).
but Hawaii remains the even slighter favorite over CSUN (6,627) on CSUN’s home court.
But this is also a different Hawaii team than the results from earlier in the season, which Pablo is relying on.
It’s gonna be a very interesting weekend…
7. Hawaii’s RPI was 11 on Selection Sunday, allowing them to host. they finished at 20.
BTW, UC Davis swept the weekly honors.
Manu-Olevao nominated for POW, Greeley for FOW, Mendoza DOW
15. 11 is still lower than 3, and my point is that UH’s RPI fell as the conference season played on. You can expect the same this year.
Agree with maverick, hosting in the regionals is wishful thinking. Bottom line wahine went 0-3 against the PAC 12. Period. Im more focused on whether Shoji can find the mix with his frosh and starters so Hawaii can at least capture the Big West outright, take the automatic, and field a competitive team in the regionals. Heck, Shoji has created such adversity for his team via a daunting conference road schedule, if wahine does overcome, they will be ready-tough. I do not believe his current starters alone can do it. JMO. Hope he uses his very gifted bench on this road trip.
I guess Sealy was not impressed with Hawaii. He has them at 25 (down 3 from his vote last week) which is the lowest of all the coaches of teams who have played Hawaii this season.
Even though UCLA swept UH, the scores couldn’t have been any closer so I’m a bit surprised he has UCLA at 15 and UH at 25. It’s interesting to see how each coach voted and get a glimpse of their mindset.
18. kimo, just a small correction, I believe you meant hosting 1st/2nd round not regionals which are scheduled a few years ahead.
19. I’m not surprised Sealy voted in that sense, the same way I feel he’s not on the short list to succeed Shoji.
rollshot and hollycow — it might not even be sealy. it could be an assistant or a SID at ucla submitting the weekly ballot.
Yeah, hollycow, I guess thinking about I shouldn’t be surprised with his voting. And I also get the impression he would not be on the short list to succeed Shoji.
17. I know, it fell as the season went on, in big part due to the losses in conference, especially the one at UC Davis.
21. Might be but I would think he would do his own voting.
22. I think Sealy would be on the short list. If he applies. As would Wong.
But much will depend on the committee and its agenda.
23. You are again misunderstanding how the RPI is calculated when you say “especially UC Davis”. You are confusing the impact of a loss versus the impact of scheduling. UH was scheduled to play Davis, and Davis’ RPI and those of its opponents were going to figure into UH’s RPI regardless of whether UH won or lost the match. The impact of UH winning that match vs. losing is a little less than .0083, when you look at it from the margin. If you understand the marginal difference between a UH win against Davis vs. a loss, you will see there is something bigger going on–the impact of scheduling. Looking at it another way, if UH had won the Davis match, its RPI would still have be in the 10-11 range. The drop from 3 to 11 is mostly related to haveing to play low RPI conference opponents. A third way to look at it: from the margin, the difference between a win or loss against any UH opponent is nearly the same for all opponents–a number just under .0083 (.25 x (30/30 – 29/30) plus some combined de minimis change in opponents’ RPI and their opponents’ RPIs). If UH beat Davis but lost to LBSU, UH’s RPI would have been essentially unchanged. A good loss/bad loss scenario would predict a a significantly higher RPI as you would assume a greater impact of not losing to Davis versus losing to a stronger LBSU team.
23. Just to clarify, my analysis does not factor in any presumed NCAA bonus for beating a top 25 team. If such a bonus exists, the I would argue UH’s bad losses are to UCLA, ASU and Oregon because a win would have earned UH bonus RPI points. In the Davis case, because Davis wasn’t top 25, there were no bonus points foregone and thus no bad loss.
Shoji will coach one more year 2015 and Sealy will not apply and leave BCS UCLA.
Sealy would never have someone else vote for him and have his name on it.
people get so offended here so easily. it’s quite the ‘victim complex.’ if sealy had rated hawaii highly in prior years … it’s suddenly negated if he votes hawaii lower than people’s own perception of where they personally think hawaii should be this year? it’s so odd. let’s not forget that hawaii fell out of the poll just a few short weeks ago. they’ve climbed back up, not because they’ve put together some really quality wins — in fact the competition that hawaii has faced since that time has been so-so — but instead, have climbed back into the poll merely because teams around them have lost. hawaii is still lucky to be in the coaches’ poll, imho.
Lol. If anyone is getting offended by anything written here, it’s the people who feel compelled to whine about others having a victim complex while at the same time getting obviously offended when facts get pointed out by others.
I personally have don’t care where Hawaii is ranked and if other coaches who are familiar with Hawaii felt Hawaii was 25 or worse, I wouldn’t have even noticed Sealy’s ranking – or cared. But it goes to follow from Sealy’s ranking (and let’s not kid ourselves despite a valiant effort to shift the blame, it’s HIS ranking) that he believes Hawaii is worse than those other coaches and he also believes UCLA is much better. That’s fine and he certainly is entitled to his opinion but, yeah, it does not correspond with other COACHES who are as familiar with Hawaii nor is it supported by the actual match scores between UCLA and UH — which was the only point.
Is it a big deal? Nope. Is it a valid observation? Yes, since he’s a former asst. coach. My perception of where Hawaii should be ranked plays no part in anything. Nor do I share the need to be obsequious towards Sealy. I do, however, hope UCLA does some real damage in the Pac12 this year. : )
Maverick, I also am pretty much resigned to the fact that Hawaii will not be seeded and host a subregional this year. Even if they are in the 13-18 RPI range, they will just not have the good wins against top RPI 25 teams to put them over other teams in the same range.
But, hey, this team has improved so much and is so much fun to watch, it really doesn’t matter much to me.
It looks like BYU, Colorado St, Oregon and Washington will be seeded and Hawaii will most likely be sent to one of their subregionals. (UCLA could be seeded as well but I can’t see them putting in a bid to host with the flooding situation at the Pauley.) Will definitely be interesting to see how it all plays out!
rollshot — haha, ok …. i’m not sure what part of my post sounded like it took offense. was making an observation just like you. though i would say that your post in #28 would seem to contradict your post in #22. just sayin’ …
29. I agree with you. I am basically ignoring RPI and poll rankings this year and hoping the team continues to improve so that they defeat some seeded teams in the tournament.
If Sealy’s vote (on Hawaii being #25) is based upon the UCLA vs Hawaii match then I would agree with him. At that time UH was a 2 dimensional team (Magill first then everything to the left). The difference now is marked by the number of blocks and kills from the opposite – justifying 3rd in blocking nationally, and theoretically more efficient.
cindy — you had written this in today’s article: “Two of the three Pac-12 teams Hawaii lost to in nonconference play are helping the RPI. Oregon (13-1) is at No. 5 and UCLA (11-4) No. 15, but Arizona State (12-4) is at No. 37.”
i would add that it’s not the “rank” of a team in the RPI that helps or hurts hawaii’s own RPI; rather, it’s the win-loss records of those teams, regardless of rank, that helps more. all 3 of those pac-12 teams when 1-1 last week, so really all three helped Hawaii’s RPI about the same. a team like ohio arguably is helping hawaii’s RPI more, since they are currently undefeated in conference, and will likely gobble up more wins. the pac-12 teams are in too good of a conference — they’ll all start to suffer some losses as conference play continues.
16. Don’t see it that way. I feel Shoji will be here at least until 2016. And I think Sealy would apply given the right conditions.
33. one must also take into account how the conferences are rated.
Want a bad region? Big West, Mountain West and WAC make up one.
24. I understand how it works. But as you mention a potential bonus for beating a Top 25 team think there could be a negative bonus for a really, really bad loss.
cindy — if you were taking into account where the teams play, and i don’t understand why you had said only 2 of 3 of the pac-12 teams are helping hawaii’s RPI.
if you’re referring to the component of the RPI that is “opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage,” then yes, the pac-12 would give hawaii a boost. but the deviation in this component is much narrower than the other components of the RPI, so the “boost” to hawaii’s RPI would be negligible.
the RPI does not have a “negative bonus” for a bad loss.
Very informative discussions on RPI and winning records. All great for speculation and the possibility of U of H hosting initial rounds.
Believe the only thing right now that the Wahine have CONTROL of is their play. If they continue to win, they’ll make the tournament.
Currently, the team and players are improving as was the hope and prediction. Haven’t observed anyone taking a step backwards. For example some might argue that Long has. Believe Long is “steady” and some of the “other” OH players are just getting better. Tai the most glaring improvement. Nikki is coming back stronger each day. Kalei G. is a rock. Long, Passi and Huff serve as powerful backups ready to jump in if any falter. A testimony to the Coaching Staff…
Go Wahine
36. Cubi gets it. I don’t even know what conference ratings mean when discussing RPIS. It is very simple what you want to see happen–UH must win as many of its games as possible and UH’s non-conference opponents must win as many games as possible.
I was 17 years old when I graduated from HS, and 17 has always been a special number to me. In a good way. But 17 may be an ugly number for this year’s version of the Rainbow Wahine.
They started out ranked 17 in the first Top 25 Coaches Poll. (17 is said to be the UH’s weakest ranking ever in preseason AVCA polling.)
Now they are ranked 17 by the NCAA’s supercomputers in the first “official” RPI of the season. (It was just a year ago that the Bows received their highest ever RPI opening in history. Needless to say, that team — which “played ugly but we’ll take the win” throughout the season — had all that “ugly” catch up to them on their own territory in the form of BYU slamming the Sweet 16’s NO ENTRY door right smack in the Wahine face. BANG!)
Let’s hope the number 17 doesn’t come back to haunt the Bows come Selection Sunday.