I like Seattle in the Super Bowl … for now

The Seahawks were briefly favored in some opening lines yesterday, but the Broncos quickly took over as a 1-to-3 point favorite.

I think the value bet at this point is to take the points because there is a strong general public anti-Seahawks (Richard Sherman) and pro-Broncos (Peyton Manning) sentiment, and I believe that is reflected in the early wagering.

If I were a betting person in a place legal to do it I’d probably go heavy on the money line on Seattle at +125. Main reason? Defense. It wins championships, but it is underrated in wagering lines.

I ¬†also like the idea of a strong running game with Marshawn Lynch in potentially bad weather over Manning’s questionable poor weather passing.

I usually love the under for its value because most fans love to play the over. But the under might get more play than usual because of that bad weather potential. Early over-under lines were around 47.5 and 48.0.


  1. PurpleMaple January 20, 2014 3:46 pm

    Dave, your assessment is probably correct, but I like the Denver Broncos with Peyton Manning to win. If not for the weather, I would clearly pick Denver, but it is what it is – expect poor weather which favors the stronger running game of Seattle. Now why in the world did they pick MetLife Stadium to play the Super Bowl?

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